It's that time of year again - that time when Hollywood elite crawl out of their mansions, dress in clothes and jewels that cost more than your house, and mingle with each other at some of the most expensive events of the year.
That's right - it is award season and, just like every year, I am eager to see who wins the ultimate honors at the Academy Awards this Feb. 27.
Okay, I confess...as far as the 10 films nominated for Best Picture are concerned, I've only seen three of them. But so what if I am not quite up to par on the movies this year. It's not like I'm a voting member of the academy. No, that honor is reserved for people working within the movie industry and that is the reason why I like the Academy Awards better than all the other award shows - the Academy Awards are voted by people who actually know the craft.
Other award shows, things like the Golden Globes and the People's Choice Awards, can prove to be a result of fads and really don't offer much insight into the art of movie making.
For example, this year's People Choice Awards named The Twilight Saga: Eclipse as the favorite movie of the year.
Yeah, sure (please note the skepticism in those two words).
I am not saying that movie is not a favorite movie among its fans, but wouldn't the favorite movie of the year be, technically, the highest grossing?
In that case, Toy Story 3 should have won this award. Eclipse is on the list of the top five grossing films of 2010, but going strictly on grosses, it is technically only the fourth favorite movie of the year.
Award shows like the People's Choice claim to reflect what the people like, but really, it is a reflection of that group of people who have access to the internet and can spend an hour each day voting and re-voting.
And while the People's Choice voting is questionable, the Golden Globes would raise a few eyebrows, too, except they're so good at predicting Academy Award winners.
The Golden Globes is voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press - an organization of more than 90 "international" journalists who cover the movie industry - the catch is, to be a member of the Hollywood Foreign Press, the journalist must be based out of Southern California. I won't even point out the irony here.
But even if these 90 journalists seem to be choosing who the best actors and actresses of the year are, they do have a pretty good grasp of what will happen at the Oscars. After all, in the last 10 years, six movies that won a best picture award at the Golden Globes went on to win the top honor at the Academy Awards.
Not a bad record, really - until you look at the Director Guild of America Awards. In the last 10 years, eight Academy Award Best Picture winners saw their director win the top award at the Directors Guild of America Awards.
So based on this, who will walk away with the Best Picture award from this year's Academy Awards?
If one trusts the Golden Globes, place your best bets on either The Social Network or The Kids are All Right. If you choose to trust the Directors Guild of America, look at The Kings Speech for the big win.
Of course, there is a chance one of the other seven nominees could pull off a major upset...but I doubt it.